Highlights:

• Home sales up 0.8% from March to April.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 11.5% above levels in April 2011.
• The size of the year-over-year increase reflects a slowdown in sales last April following changes to mortgage rules which came into effect on March 18, 2011.
• The number of newly listed homes edged back 0.2% from March to April.
• While still well balanced, the combination of stable new listings and slightly higher sales activity resulted in a tighter national housing market.
• The national average home price edged up 0.9% on a year-over-year basis in April.

Sales over MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada edged up 0.8 per cent from March to April 2012, putting them on par with levels reported in the same month two years earlier.

Activity was either up or held steady in half of all local markets in April, with Toronto and Calgary posting the biggest monthly increases for the second month in a row. Activity gains in Montreal, Winnipeg, Edmonton, as well as London and St. Thomas also made significant contributions to the national sales increase in April. Increased activity in these markets offset monthly declines in Ottawa, Windsor-Essex, Quebec City, the Fraser Valley, and Vancouver.

“A number of Canadian housing market trends in April remained intact from the previous month,” said Wayne Moen, CREA President. “Trends in Vancouver and Toronto continue to diverge. These two housing markets have an obvious influence on national statistics and a high profile, but Canada is a big place. Trends in housing markets differ across Canada, and as all housing is local, buyers and sellers should speak to their local REALTOR® to better understand current and prospective trends where they live.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 11.5 per cent above levels in April 2011, reflecting the slowdown in sales following changes to mortgage regulations that came into effect in March of last year.

A total of 157,804 homes have traded hands so far this year, up 6.4 per cent from levels reported in the first four months of 2011 and about four per cent above both the five- and 10-year averages for sales during the first third of the year.

The number of newly listed homes was little changed in April compared to March, having edged back 0.2 per cent on a month-over-month basis. The number of markets in which new listings rose (45) ran almost even with those where new listings eased (54).

The national housing market tightened marginally in April due to higher sales and stable new listings, but remains firmly entrenched in balanced market territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 55.9 per cent in April, up slightly from its March reading of 55.4 per cent. Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, the number of local markets that were in balanced market territory in April (59) was up slightly from March (56).

Nationally, the number of months of inventory stood at 5.6 months at the end of April, unchanged from levels reported in March. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is a further measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in April 2012 was $375,810, up 0.9 per cent from the same month last year. While more or less flat compared to last spring on a national basis, average sale prices were up on a year-over-year basis in 80 per cent of all local markets in April.

“It bears repeating that the national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods, and that a replay of this phenomenon was not expected this year,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Sales data confirm that high-end activity in Vancouver is well off the peak levels reached at this time last year, which is exerting a gravitational pull on the national average price.”

“By contrast, activity in Toronto is stronger this spring than it was last spring. Higher-priced sales activity there is on the rise and buoying average prices. As the most active housing market in Canada, Toronto is the biggest factor supporting national average price.”

“Netting Vancouver out of the national average price calculation yields a 4.9 per cent year-on-year gain. Netting Toronto out of the national average price calculation, while leaving Vancouver in, produces a 2.2 per cent year-on-year decline. Netting out both Vancouver and Toronto results in a 3.1 per cent increase in average price. On balance, this points to modest price growth amid balanced market conditions in much of the rest of Canada.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 104,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

Highlights:

• The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index in March 2012 was up 5.1% year-over-year – on par with the gain in February and the smallest increase since June 2011.
• Toronto posted the largest year-over-year increase (7.3%), followed by Vancouver (5.3%), the Fraser Valley (3.3%), Calgary (2.6%), and Montreal (2.2%).
• Year-over-year gains were largest for one-and two-storey single family homes, which rose 5.4% and 6.8% respectively. Apartment prices climbed 3%, and townhouse prices were up 2.6%.

The MLS® Home Price Index rose 5.1 per cent in March 2012 compared to the same month last year. The increase was on par with February’s gain, which was the smallest since last June.

“Overall price trends show that Canada’s housing market continues to moderate,” said Wayne Moen, CREA President. “Price increases have been shrinking since last fall. While that trend paused in March, it may in part reflect an early spring in many parts of the country, resulting in increased competition among buyers. That said, headline numbers mask some important differences in price trends among local housing markets and housing types. Since all real estate is local, buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to best understand how home price trends are shaping up where they live.”

The MLS® HPI remained above its year-ago level in all five of the markets tracked, led by Toronto (7.3%).

It also held above year-ago levels in all housing categories tracked, led by two-storey single family homes (6.8%).

The MLS® HPI rose 1.3 per cent from to February to March 2012.

“The index typically experiences these types of month-over-month gains in the spring, which coincides with when the balance of supply to demand is tightest,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “With that in mind, it’s important to look at month-to-month movements in the context of how they compare to the same period in previous years. While the overall monthly price increase was on par with last year’s figure, it masks slowing price momentum in the Lower Mainland area of British Columbia. Slower price gains there were offset in March by a modest acceleration of price gains in Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal.”

Interactive tables and charts for MLS® Home Price Index data on Composite, Single family homes (including separate indices for one- and two-storey homes), Townhouse/row units, and Apartment units are available at www.homepriceindex.ca/hpi_tool_en.html.

Data table available to media upon request, for purposes of reprinting only.  

In focus: Some of the trends underlying the overall MLS® HPI

Momentum in the overall MLS® HPI held steady between February and March 2012, with equal year-over-year gains of 5.1 per cent. However, because the MLS® HPI is composed of four Benchmark housing types and more than 1,600 sub-areas spread among five housing markets, the overall index can mask price trend variations among Benchmark housing categories within a single housing market and between different parts of the country.

Price gains for two-storey single family homes have surpassed this in other housing categories since the beginning of the economic recovery. Despite a recent deceleration in gains, two-storey single family homes posted the strongest year-over-year price gains in March. By contrast, price gains for one-storey single family homes picked up in March, which was driven mainly by increases in Montreal and Toronto.

Price growth remains much stronger for one-and two-storey single family homes compared to multi-family units, with price gains for single family homes (6.4%) running roughly double that for townhouse units (2.6%) or apartment units (3.0%). Even so, there are significant differences between housing markets.

In Montreal, townhouse unit prices are rising faster than prices for other housing types. This likely reflects the desirability of their location, since townhouse units are predominantly centrally located while single family homes are often located further from Montreal’s city centre.

Price gains have remained strongest in Toronto since mid-2011. The rise in Toronto’s Composite MLS® HPI was a full two per cent above the year-over-year increase in Vancouver’s composite index. This represents the largest spread for price growth between these two markets in more than a year. This gap may widen further, since the Vancouver market is showing signs of coming off the boil while a lack of available supply relative to demand keeps Toronto’s housing market in seller’s market territory.

For additional information, including interactive tables, please go to: www.homepriceindex.ca.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further statistical information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

The Bank reiterated a number of the more positive developments it first mentioned in the March 8^th announcement. These include a stronger profile for U.S. economic growth, as well as reduced risk emanating from Europe, which the Bank now expects will “emerge slowly from recession in the second half of 2012.”

The Bank also noted that “improved global economic prospects, supply disruptions and geopolitical risks,” are keeping oil prices up which if sustained could prove a risk to the improvement in economic momentum.

In Canada the Bank again declared the biggest risk to be high household debt, adding that it expects households will continue to add to their debt burden as “private domestic demand will account for almost all of Canada’s economic growth over the projection horizon.”

That said, with economic momentum in Canada remaining firmer than the Bank had expected back in January, the forecast for growth this year has been lifted. The Bank now expects the economy will grow at 2.4 per cent this year, up from the 2.0 per cent forecast in January.

At the same time, the Bank lowered its forecast for 2013 to 2.4 per cent from 2.8 per cent, and also extended its forecast out to 2014 with a prediction of 2.2 per cent growth.

The Bank also noted that the amount of slack in the economy had decreased. As such, the Bank now expects the economy will return to full capacity “in the first half of 2013,” which while intentionally vague is still sooner than the previous prediction for a return to full capacity by the third quarter of next year.

The Bank ended the announcement by hinting, for the first time since last September, that it may have to raise rates, stating “In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.”

Further clarification as to when these “modest” rate hikes may be expected will no doubt be the subject of the various speeches and remarks given by the Governor and his deputies between now and the next announcement on June 5^th, 2012.

As of April 17^th 2012, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 5.44 per cent. This is up 0.2 percentage points from 5.24 per cent on March 8^th, when the Bank made its previous policy interest rate announcement.

(CREA 04/17/2012)

Highlights:

• Home sales rose 2.5% from February to March.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 1.6% above levels in March 2011, the smallest year-over-year increase since last April.
• The number of newly listed homes eased 0.3% from February to March.
• While still well balanced, the national housing market tightened due to the rise in activity.
• The national average home price edged down 0.5% on a year-over-year basis in March.

Sales activity over MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations rose 2.5 per cent from February to March 2012. The increase lifted national activity to its highest monthly level since April 2010.

Activity in March was up from the previous month in two-thirds of all local markets, with Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton contributing most to the national increase.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 1.6 per cent above levels in March 2011, the smallest year-over-year increase since last April. It reflects moderate gains in a number of major centres, including Toronto, Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City. Increases in these housing markets offset larger declines in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, where activity last year ran at unusually strong levels.

A total of 108,373 homes traded hands in the first three months of the year. This is 5.0 per cent above the five-year average for first quarter sales, 3.8 per cent above the 10-year average, and 4.4 per cent above activity in the first quarter of 2011.

New listings were little changed following their uptick in February, having edged lower by 0.3 per cent on a month-over-month basis in March. The number of newly listed homes declined from the previous month in just over half of all local Canadian housing markets, and rose in almost all of the remainder.

“The spring housing market is off to a good start,” said Wayne Moen, CREA’s President. “The number of sales and newly listed properties are up from levels last year, and the vast majority of housing markets remain balanced. That said, all housing is local, so buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to understand current and prospective trends where they live.”

The national housing market remains well balanced, although the monthly increase in sales activity caused the balance between supply and demand to tighten slightly.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 55.1 per cent in March. This remains firmly in balanced market territory, but is up from 53.6 per cent in February. Based on a ratio of between 40 and 60 per cent, more than half of local markets were balanced in March.

The number of months of inventory stood at 5.7 at the end of March on a national basis, down slightly from 5.8 months in February. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in March 2012 was $369,677, representing a decline of one half of a percentage point from the same month last year.

“Average prices are up from year-ago levels in most large urban centres,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The slight decline in the national average price points to a tug of war between Toronto and Vancouver from the standpoint of their sales mix compared to last year.”

“The national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in some of Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods. It was expected that this would not recur this spring, which the latest sales figures confirm. The decline in average price reflects the change in Vancouver’s sales mix, not housing price deflation.”

“At the same time, overall home sales activity in Toronto is stronger than it was last spring, and higher-end home sales are up from year-ago levels. Being by far the most active housing market in Canada, Toronto represents the single biggest factor supporting national average price compared to last year.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.

Highlights:

• The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index in February 2012 was up 5.1% from its year-ago level, the smallest increase since June 2011.
• Toronto posted the largest increase (7.3%), but momentum continued fading. Price increases also moderated further in Calgary (2.5%) and Montreal (1.6%).
• Gains decelerated in all housing categories tracked except 2-storey single family homes.
• The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index rose 1.1% on a month-over-month basis in February 2012.
• Prices were up most for 2-storey single family homes (1.6%), while townhouse/row and apartment units saw smaller gains (0.4% & 0.5% respectively).

The MLS® Home Price Index in February 2012 was up 5.1 per cent from levels in February 2011. The increase was the smallest since last June, and marked the fourth consecutive month in which gains slowed.

“MLS® HPI trends for February show that home price growth is generally slowing,” said Gary Morse, CREA President. “At the same time, price gains and trends differ among housing markets tracked by the index. Since all real estate is local, buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to best understand how home price trends are shaping up where they live.”

The MLS® HPI remained above its year-ago level in all five of the markets tracked, led by Toronto (7.3 per cent). It also remains above year-ago levels in all housing categories tracked, led by two-storey single family homes (6.9%).

The MLS® Home Price Index rose 1.1 per cent in February 2012 as compared to January.

“The index typically rises in February from the previous month as demand ramps up leading into the spring housing market,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The monthly price increase in February this year was less than what we saw in either of the past two years, which is more evidence that the trend for Canadian home prices is slowing.”

Among housing categories tracked by the index, single family homes posted the biggest month-over-month gains in most markets, particularly in Toronto where they are in short supply relative to strong demand.

In focus: the condo apartment market

Interest in the market for condo apartment units has increased recently, particularly Toronto’s condo market. With Toronto’s year-over-year increase in the MLS® HPI for apartment units (4%) having surpassed gains in other major Canadian condo markets in February 2012, it is likely that Toronto’s condo market will remain of particular interest.

The MLS® HPI shows that price gains are decelerating for condos in Toronto. In other markets, year-over-year price gains for condo apartment units are near the overall rate of consumer price inflation. This suggests that the condo market is not overheating.

A number of new condominium apartment projects have been completed in the GTA over the past year. Some of these new units have been listed for sale, resulting in a better supplied market. The number of months of inventory for condo units in the GTA on the Toronto Real Estate Board’s MLS® System is running close to its long term average. This suggests the GTA condo market is balanced, which is consistent with moderate price growth.

The number of condo developments slated for completion annually is unlikely to result in a glut of supply relative to demand and consequent price correction. Barring an unexpected spike in interest rates, economic downturn or overly restrictive further changes to mortgage regulations, the condominium apartment market is likely to remain balanced for the foreseeable future.

For additional information, including interactive tables, please go to: www.homepriceindex.ca

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real es­tate Boards and Associations.

Further statistical information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.

¹The MLS® Home Price Index is based on single family, townhouse/row unit, and apartment unit sales activity in Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Greater Montreal, and Greater Toronto.