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OTTAWA â February 15, 2012 â According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity retreated in January 2012 from the strong finish reported for December 2011.
Highlights:
Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada fell 4.5 per cent from December 2011 to January 2012. This marks the first monthly decline in national activity since August 2011 and the biggest monthly decline since July 2010. The monthly decline reversed a string of monthly increases over the closing months of last year, and returned national activity to where it stood at the end of the third quarter of 2011.
âThe national housing market is stabilizing and remains well balanced,â said Gary Morse, CREAâs President. âThat said, forecasts for economic and job growth going forward vary widely for different parts of the country, suggesting a possible continuation of a softening trend in some markets, as well as the potential that demand will pick up based on strong fundamentals in others. All real estate is local, so talk to your local REALTOR® to understand how price trends in your neighbourhood are shaping up.â
Activity was down in over half of all local markets in January from the previous month. Led by declines in Greater Toronto and Montréal, demand also softened in a number of other major urban centres including the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Greater Vancouver.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity was up four per cent from year-ago levels in January, the smallest year-over-year increase since last May. As was the case in a number of months last year, actual sales in January 2012 stood close to the five and ten year average for the month.
The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis in January following a 2.9 per cent increase in December. The monthly decline in new supply reflects a drop in new listings in a number of Canadaâs largest urban centres, which offset a jump in new listings in Vancouver.
Sales fell in January shifting the national market back towards the mid-point of balanced territory and reversing the recent trend which had seen the market becoming tighter over the final four months of 2011. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 53.8 per cent in January, down from 55.5 per cent in December and 55.4 per cent in November.
Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, 60 per cent of local markets were balanced in January. Compared to December, there were fewer buyersâ and sellersâ markets, and a greater number of balanced markets.
The number of months of inventory stood at six months at the end of January on a national basis, up from 5.7 months in December 2011 and returning it to where it stood in October 2011. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2012 was $348,178, representing an increase of 1.2 per cent from its year-ago level. This ranks among the smallest increases since late 2010.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national average home price rose 1.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis, marking a rebound from a decline of similar magnitude in December. This pattern mirrors the one playing out in the newly-launched MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), published on February 6.
âYear-over-year comparisons in the national average price are expected to become volatile and may turn negative, reflecting average price developments in the first half of 2011 in Vancouver,â said Gregory Klump, CREAâs Chief Economist. âAt that time, high-end home sales in Vancouverâs priciest neighbourhoods surged to all-time record levels, which skewed the national average price upward considerably. A replay of this phenomenon is not expected this year. As a result, comparisons for national average price to year-ago levels over the coming months will reflect an upwardly skewed base effect. For this reason, year-over-year comparisons should be kept in perspective. Developments in the MLS® HPI will provide important guidance on price trends, since it is not affected by the problem of compositional shifts in the mix of sales activity.â
The MLS® HPI also takes into account the contributions toward the price of a home made by a broad range of quantitative and qualitative housing features, allowing it to track Canadian home price trends better than any other measure.
PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas.
Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canadaâs real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canadaâs largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.
The Bank of Canada kept its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on January 17th, 2012. This marks the 11th consecutive policy meeting in which borrowing costs have been left unchanged.
While recognizing that the outlook for the global economy had deteriorated and that uncertainty had increased since it released its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank also made those same observations at its previous meeting on December 6th.
Economic growth in Canada had more momentum in the second half of 2011 than the Bank projected in its October MPR, but it expects the pace going forward to slow by more modest than previously expected, due largely to factors outside Canadian borders. This reiterates statements made in December 2011. On the upside, the Bank said that âvery favourable financing conditions are expected to buttress consumer spending and housing activity.â
The Bank releases its updated forecast for Canadian economic growth. It now estimates that the economy grew by 2.4 per cent in 2011 compared to the initial estimate of 2.1 per cent, owing to the better than expected end to the year.
The Bank projects growth of 2.0 per cent in 2012 compared to 1.9 per cent in the October MPR, and 2.8 per cent in 2013, down slightly from the previous 2013 forecast of 2.9 per cent, with the big picture being that past and current growth estimates have been revised upward at the expense of future economic growth.
âThe Bank said it expects the pace of growth going forward to moderate by more than initially thought, but the forecast for growth this year has actually been raised slightly,â said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. âThat reflects a weaker than previously expected growth profile for the first half of 2012, followed by an acceleration in the second half of the year.â
âThe Bank reiterated that its outlook remains subject to downside risks from the sovereign debt issue in Europe. Recent credit-rating downgrades to much of the euro zone point to potential contagion by way of a drop in financial market liquidity,â he added. âThe bottom line is that the Bank rate is not going to be going up anytime soon, and we may see rates lowered should downside risks materialize.â
The Bank noted that âwhile the economy appears to be operating with less slack than previously assumed, it is only anticipated to return to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013, one quarter earlier than was expected in October.â Overall, inflation expectations remain âwell-anchored.â
A number of financial institutions have recently dropped their five-year lending rates to a record low of 2.99 per cent. This is down considerably from the advertised five-year rate of 5.29 per cent when the Bank last met on December 6th, 2011.
The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on March 8th, 2012.
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm
OTTAWA â January 16, 2012 â According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity posted an increase from November to December 2011.
Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations rose 1.8 per cent from November to December 2011, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
Activity rose in more than half of all local markets, including some of Canadaâs most active, with monthly declines posted in most of the remaining markets.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity came in 4.6 per cent above year-ago levels in December. It also stood above the five- and ten-year average for December sales.
A total of 456,749 homes traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2011. This stands broadly in line with the average over the past ten years, and represents an increase of 2.2 per cent from annual levels reported in 2010.
âThe momentum in sales activity provides clear evidence that low interest rates continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market,â said Gary Morse, CREA President. âWhile buyers have become increasingly cautious, the hand off for sales activity going into the New Year suggests that Canadaâs housing market will continue to benefit from low interest rates in 2012, and continue making a significant contribution to Canadian economic activity. Even so, prospects among housing markets and neighbourhoods differ, so buyers and sellers should talk to a local REALTOR® to understand how trends are shaping up where they live.â
The number of newly listed homes rose three per cent on a month-over-month basis, reversing an equivalent monthly decline in November. New listings rose in almost 70 per cent of local markets, including some of Canadaâs most active.
With sales and new listings having climbed in tandem, the national housing market remained in balanced territory in December. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 54.8 per cent in December, down slightly from 55.5 per cent in November.
Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 percent, just over half of local markets in Canada were balanced in December. This result is little changed from November.
The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is a further measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. Nationally, it stood at 5.8 months at the end of December, down from 5.9 months at the end of November. While it has held fairly steady near six months since April 2011 onward, it peaked in August, with December marking the fourth monthly decline and a return to where it stood at the end of the first quarter.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in December 2011 was $347,801. This stood just 0.9 per cent above the average selling price in December 2010, marking smallest increase since October 2010.
âMomentum for national sales activity and average price remains positive but is slowing, which suggests that the continuation of low interest rates is not causing the Canadian housing market to overheat,â said Gregory Klump, CREAâs Chief Economist. âHigh end home sales seem unlikely to spike again in the first quarter like they did at the beginning of 2011, so national average price momentum may wane further over the next few months. With interest rates widely expected to remain low throughout 2012, homeownership will remain affordable, and continue to support home sales activity.â
OTTAWA -Â December 15, 2011 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity rose slightly in November 2011 from the previous month.
Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada edged upward by one-half of a percentage point. This marks the third straight month in which national activity was up from the previous monthâs levels.
Activity rose in about 60 per cent of all local markets with a record November in the Halifax-Dartmouth region offsetting a dip in sales in Toronto.
âThe Canadian housing market is proving resilient in the face of ongoing global economic and financial uncertainty, to the benefit of Canadian economic growth,â said Gary Morse, CREAâs President. âThat said, some housing markets are picking up while others are holding steady or consolidating, so buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to understand current and prospective trends in their local housing market.â
Throughout most months in 2011, actual (not seasonally adjusted) national home sales were in line with the 10-year average. November sales marked a break in that pattern, climbing seven per cent above the 10 year average and reaching the fourth highest level on record for the month.
âToward the end of every year, thereâs a natural inclination to compare how momentum for national sales activity and average price compare to the year before,â said Gregory Klump, CREAâs Chief Economist. âNational sales activity picked up late last year, and Novemberâs results suggest that a similar trend may be playing out again this year. By contrast, national average price also picked up toward the end of last year, whereas this year it has held steady after having peaked in the spring.â
âWith interest rates expected to remain low for longer, the housing sector will no doubt be closely watched for signs of excess,â added Klump. âThat said, current trends for resale housing and new home construction suggest that tightened mortgage regulations are working as intended and fostering economic stability in Canada.â
A total of 432,048 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems so far this year, up 2.1 per cent from levels in the first 11 months of 2010. The year-to-date sales figure remains broadly in line (+0.7 per cent) with the average for that period from 2001 to 2010.
Compared to October, the number of newly listed homes fell 3.4 per cent in November. New listings slipped lower in more than two-thirds of Canadian housing markets, with Toronto, the Hamilton-Burlington region, and Calgary contributing most to the national decline.
The national housing market remains balanced, but is edging closer to sellerâs market territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 55.5 per cent in November, up from 53.4 per cent in October. This marks the third month in which the national ratio has risen, and it now stands at its highest reading since the spring.
Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 percent, just over half of local markets in Canada were balanced in November, while a third of markets qualified as sellersâ markets.
The number of months of inventory nationally stood at six months at the end of November. It has held steady at about this level since April, which is above levels posted during the first quarter. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2011 stood at $360,396. This represents a year-over-year increase of 4.6 per cent, its smallest increase since January.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm
Ottawa, ON â December 1, 2011 – Earlier this week, a new version of REALTOR.ca was released. This version introduces exciting new features and tools that allow users to customize REALTOR.ca to find what theyâre looking faster and easier.
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Collapsible panels on the map search page for customized views (Red arrow #1)
Draw an area – Custom map search tool (Polygon Map Tool â BETA format) (Red arrow #2)
Auto-sizing to fit high resolution (HD) monitors
Social media links